Ross Wanted Me & Here I Am!!!

SEVERE WEATHER ALERT!

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR
CENTRAL/EASTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN OHIO TO MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA/FAR WESTERN
VIRGINIA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO/TENNESSEE
VALLEYS TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

...TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEYS TO MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
PER MIDDAY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THE FIRST PIECE OF A COMPLEX
MIDWEST MID/UPPER TROUGH APPEARS TO BE CROSSING THE LOWER OH
VALLEY...WHILE A SECONDARY PORTION/JET STREAK OVER THE LOWER MO
VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO RACE SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE OH/TN VALLEYS BY
THIS EVENING. A SURFACE CYCLONE CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
ILLINOIS/INDIANA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
TODAY...WITH THE PRIMARY/INITIAL COLD FRONT SPREADING
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

A BROAD...MODESTLY MOIST /50S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS/...BUT WEAKLY
CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AIDED
BY INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...ONE OR MORE BROKEN
BANDS OF FAST MOVING STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/INCREASE IN
COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ALONG BUT ESPECIALLY AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT
/ESPECIALLY OHIO VALLEY VICINITY/ AND THE POSSIBILITY TO MLCAPE(MID LEVEL CAPE) TO
UPWARDS OF AROUND 1250-1500 J/KG WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...VERY
STRONG/LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL
MODE OF SEMI-DISCRETE/SPLITTING SUPERCELLS...WITH CONGEALING
STORMS/BOW DEVELOPMENT ALSO PROBABLE WITH TIME. WHILE LARGE HAIL AND
WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS...A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL GIVEN THE DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL SPEED SHEAR.

...ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SOUTHWARD...
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE SEVERE STORM THREAT IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN
DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE
VERY STRONG BENEATH THE JET CORE AS FAR SOUTH AS PORTIONS OF
MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA/GEORGIA...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR 60 F.
HOWEVER...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE MUCH LESS FAVORABLE COMPARED
TO AREAS FARTHER NORTH...ON THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF THE JET...AND THIS
WILL LIMIT CAPE TO A DEGREE. STILL...THE STRONG WIND PROFILES AND
SUBSTANTIAL LOW-MID LEVEL BUOYANCY COULD SUPPORT STORMS WITHDAMAGING WINDS.

....ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS/INDIANA AND THE ADJACENT OHIO
   VALLEY...
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ADDITIONAL SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON ALONG A SECONDARY
SURFACE WIND SHIFT...WITH AID FROM THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY. HERE...COLD THERMAL PROFILES
ALOFT/STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW-TOPPED
STORMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE DAMAGING HAIL .

...OTHERWISE POINTS EASTWARD(BALTIMORE INCLUDED)...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM PROGRESSES
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD...WITH AT LEAST AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT
CONTINUING

Basically the a fore-mentioned synopsis implys that a Jet Stream impulse
is reaching the trough of the storm wave creating a storm motion favaroble
in some areas for severe weather! Below are the Chances of severe weather!

• 2-5% Chance of tornadoes include the following states : Pennsylvania, Maryland, Ohio, West Virginia, Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, Illinois, Indiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and finally North & South Carolina! **Note the states bolder in color are currently under a TORNADO WATCH for all or portions of the state!**
• 5-45% Damaging hail (possibly to the size of baseballs) : Pennsylvania, Maryland, Ohio, West Virginia, Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, Illinois, Indiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and finally North & South Carolina!
• 5-30% Damaging Wind gusts (60+mph) : Pennsylvania, Maryland, Ohio, West Virginia, Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, Illinois, Indiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and finally North & South Carolina!

Video and Reports of Severe Weather Events Will be posted as I receive Said info.....